JOURNALS/BOOKS
Research on the development prediction of combined heat and power industry in China 2645-2656 Y-N. Wu, R-H. Xu, K-F. Chen, L. Zhao

Energy Education Science and Technology Part A: Energy Science and Research

2014 Volume (issues) 32(4): 2645-2656

 

Research on the development

prediction of combined heat

and power industry in China

 

Yun-na Wu, Ru-hang Xu*, Kai-feng Chen, Lu Zhao

 

North China Electric Power University, School of Economics and Management, Beijing 102206, China

 

  

 

Received: 23 Febuary 2014; accepted: 27 April 2014

Abstract

 

As an important form of distributed energy sources, combined heat and power industry has a relatively long developing history in China. But the development speed accelerating started in only recent years thanks to the good development environment of new energy. The development environment of distributed energy is very complicated. An accurate prediction can only be done with complex analysis. This paper has studied relative energy industry index data of some OECD countries, which have similar histories of nowadays China, based on cluster analysis and BP ANN technology. Then the simulation is executed with the input of China’s recent year index data. Finally, linear regression method is used to do prediction with the simulation result. The simulation result is compared with actual statistical record. The result shows that the booming phenomenon of combined heat and power industry in China is inflated to some extent, so the investors are suggested to hold a cautious attitude. The implement of key policies has to be followed closely.

 

Keywords: Distributed energy sources; Combined heat and power; Cluster analysis; BP ANN; Industry development
                  prediction